Electricity pylons in a rural setting with a blue sky.

Preparing for Energy Disruption in the UK

12/21/2022

Organisations in the UK should prepare for ‘highly unlikely’ disruption to energy supplies. The National Grid assessment is the UK will have enough energy to meet demand during the winter. However, the uncertain geopolitical and economic situation means organisations should be preparing and testing their resilience for scenarios where cuts to gas or electricity supplies are necessary.

We are in a global energy crisis according to the International Energy Agency, and Europe and the UK is at the centre of it. The level of demand for gas and electricity is affected by the weather. A colder winter will increase demand and the potential for shortages.

The National Grid has said the worst-case scenario is power cuts of up to three hours at times of peak demand. This could be in the morning as houses wake up, but more likely between 4-7pm in the evenings. Any outages should be announced at least 24 hours in advance allowing business leaders time to implement contingency plans.

It is prudent to refresh or prepare new plans for scenarios where gas, electricity or both are unavailable. Contingency planning strengthens organisational resilience and supports leaders to respond to disruption effectively.

Of course, the primary impact of any disruption will be on heating, lighting and any plant or equipment that relies on electricity or gas supply. Indirect effects should also be considered while planning. This could include disruption associated with:

inability to operate sites or premises safely during outages
increased vulnerability of lone or mobile / peripatetic workers
water supplies could be affected
availability of people or employees, especially those with caring responsibilities
impact on internal and external information and communications networks and infrastructure
ability to communicate and make decisions using electronic equipment, such as mobile phones
mobile phone networks although these should not be affected by short-term disruptions in supplies
transport networks and hubs such as airports, trains, ports, roads and distribution centres
the impact on suppliers and their ability to operate as normal
reduced security at sites where alarms, lighting, and barriers cannot be operated as normal
lost time associated with safe shutdown or restart of plant and equipment

What can be done?

In broad terms, organisations should be planning for disruption and to safely reduce your short-term demand for gas or electricity now. This can be done by reminding people of the need to consume energy wisely. Switch off non-essential decorative lights such as advertising screens, company signage or window lighting. Ensure rooms or spaces are only using heating, lighting, and ventilation when they are in operation or there are other safety or security reasons for doing so. If equipment or devices cannot be switched off completely, consider if there are times when they are not in use and can be switched off.

When implementing energy reduction measures, it is important these do not create unintentional risks to people, the environment, property or third parties. For example, reducing the temperature of domestic hot water below a safe threshold could create a legionella risk. Re-activating equipment that has not been operational for some time or switching off some lighting could create safety risks. Not heating premises sufficiently during cold periods, especially overnight, could lead to frozen and burst pipes.

If the UK does suffer an energy shortage government, regulators, and other public bodies will issue guidance in response to whichever situation unfolds. The UK Government has reportedly tested plans for disruptions – called Programme Yarrow - for disruptions lasting up to 7 days. Organisations should agree how official guidance will be monitored, interpreted, and implemented.

Contingency planning is an iterative process and broadly follows the following steps:

Impact analysis to understand the possible impacts on critical activities, sites and key suppliers
Agree recovery options for the critical activities or sites that could be most impacted by disruption
Plan how you will implement the recovery strategy, and how you will communicate and make decisions during the disruption. This may already be documented in your existing business continuity plan
Rehearse the plan by walking through the response to different disruption scenarios. This will act as a stress test and allow leaders to identify and plug any gaps in the planning. Rehearsals should also focus on the practical implementation such as decision making if normal communication methods are not available.

Summary

Gas and electricity shortages are a low-likelihood, high-impact event. The government and other bodies are actively managing the risk for the whole country. However, preparing for low-likelihood, high-impact events is sensible risk management. Many organisations are already implementing energy reduction measures as part of sustainability initiatives or to reduce costs. Reducing energy demand is good for us all, however careful consideration is needed to avoid unintentional risks to people, environment, assets and third parties.

Organisations should refresh or create contingency plans to ensure they are resilient to the National Grid’s worst-case scenario. Some organisations may choose to consider longer disruptions. Plans should be informed by an analysis of the potential primary and secondary impact on people, critical activities, and sites. These plans should then be stress tested by the leaders who will implement them if they are needed.