Nearly half of all professional football stadiums put at risk by climate change

English football faces potential disruption from climate change in the coming decades, with more than four in 10 (42%) grounds at risk from multiple extreme weather events, a new study shows.

Of 92 stadiums in the top English leagues, 39 will face a high risk from three or more climate hazards by 2050, according to experts at insurer Zurich UK.

The study, carried out using advanced climate modelling, ranked all grounds based on their future threat from flooding, extreme rainfall, drought and windstorms. It suggests clubs could face a challenge from severe weather events unless they take action to prepare and adapt.

Grimsby Town’s stadium could be most affected by climate-related hazards. The ground, located next to the North Sea, is projected to face a heightened threat from coastal flooding, bouts of heavy rain, and drought by 2050. The next most exposed clubs were Lincoln City, Norwich City, Newport County and Leicester City. The analysis does not factor in any risk mitigation measures put in place by clubs or local authorities.

One in five football grounds (17 out of 92) will be at high or very high risk from coastal and river flooding by 2050. The figure increased to nearly a quarter (22 out of 92) of all clubs when stadiums at medium flood risk were included.

Extreme rainfall is predicted to have the most widespread impact on the game, with all grounds at an elevated risk of heavy rainfall events by 2050. Torrential rain could lead to flash flooding and waterlogged pitches, especially at lower league sides, which may lack the pitch maintenance budgets of bigger clubs.

Previous studies have suggested one third of grassroots pitches in England are already losing around six weeks a season due to flooding and inadequate drainage*.

Droughts could impact more than a quarter of stadiums (25 out of 92), demanding new approaches to conserving water and maintaining the condition of playing surfaces.

A further quarter (26 out of 92) of grounds could become severely exposed to windstorms, risking damage to stadiums.

Kumu Kumar, Head of Zurich Resilience Solutions UK, said:

“Football has always had to cope with unpredictable weather, but the game must now prepare for more extreme conditions. Floods, torrential rain, droughts and windstorms could damage stadiums and disrupt matches, impacting clubs, players and fans alike. Clubs at every tier of the game should take steps to identify and address their risks. The costs of inaction are far greater.”

Former professional footballer, Garry Nelson, who made more than 750 first team appearances for clubs, including Charlton, Brighton and Plymouth, said:

“Ask any player what conditions they dislike most and strong winds will be the universal answer. Quality of play is always diminished, the spectacle in the stadium and for the live TV audience is reduced, and results can hinge on a weather-related incident, rather than a sublime piece of skill. Intense rainfall also poses a threat to matches, impacting the flow of the game and heightening the risk of injury to players.”

Zurich called on UK businesses, including football clubs, to identify and address the climate risks they face.

Kumar added:

“We’re already seeing more extreme weather events in the UK yet the country as a whole is inadequately prepared. Football clubs, like other businesses, need to close the resilience gap and ready themselves for more destructive weather. By understanding the climate hazards they face, clubs can better prepare and adapt.”

Kumar said there are several steps clubs can take to climate-proof stadiums, including replacing concrete areas with surfaces that can better absorb heavy rain, investing in improved drainage systems and harvesting rainwater to irrigate pitches.

Notes to editors

* Sports and Recreation Alliance (2014) Alliance Survey referenced in Rapid Transition Alliance: Playing against the clock (2020)

Climate Hazard Ranking

Breakdown of climate hazards

Flooding

Flood hazard ranking is based on the projected flood depth (100-year return period) from fluvial or coastal flooding.

• Grimsby Town
• Norwich City
• Lincoln City
• Newport County
• Leicester City

Precipitation

Precipitation hazard ranking is based on the projected 24-hour precipitation level (100-year return period), under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario in 2050.

• Grimsby Town
• Hull City
• Lincoln City
• Doncaster Rovers
• Rotherham United

Windstorm

Windstorm hazard ranking is based on the projected one-minute sustained wind gust speed (100-year return period), under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario in 2050.

• Morecambe
• Barrow AFC
• Burnley
• Preston North End
• Fleetwood Town

Drought

Drought hazard ranking is based on the number of months with extreme drought conditions under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario in 2050.

• Norwich City
• Ipswich Town
• Colchester United
• Plymouth Argyle
• Exeter City

How can clubs adapt to extreme weather?

• Replace concrete concourses with surfaces that can better absorb rain to help prevent flash flooding.
• Grounds at risk of flooding could install barriers to safeguard pitches, ensure drainage systems are well maintained and regularly aerate grass pitches to reduce water logging.
• During droughts, rainwater harvesting could be used to sustainably irrigate pitches.
• Clubs should establish a response plan to remove vulnerable items to a secure location before windstorms.
• Misting stations could be installed to aid with cooling of fans and players.

Methodology

The physical climate risk analysis carried out by Zurich Resilience Solutions incorporates third party modelled climate data for each of the stadiums belonging to the 92 football clubs in the English football league. The climate data includes exposure data for the following hazards: flood (fluvial and coastal), precipitation, wind, hail, thunderstorm, drought, heat, wildfire, cold.

Hail, thunderstorm, wildfire, heat and cold hazards were removed from further analysis due to their low exposures to the stadiums.

The analysis is based on the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario and the 2050 time horizon. SSP2-4.5 was chosen because it is a middle-road scenario. SSP2-4.5 corresponds to a best estimate of 2.0°C warming by 2041-2060, and 2.7°C warming by 2081-2100.

• Details of each hazard metric are as follows:
• Flood – based on fluvial and coastal flooding and based on flood depth at 100-year return period (local flood defences not included in the model)
• Precipitation – 24-hour precipitation level at 100-year return period
• Windstorm – 1-minute sustained wind gust speed at 100-year return period
• Drought – number of months with extreme drought conditions (based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)

Stadiums’ exposures to each hazard are categorised into hazard levels (Low, Medium, High, or Very High). The hazard level categorisation follows Zurich’s methodology for classifying climate change hazard data into hazard levels.

Stadiums were ranked based on their exposure to each individual hazard. Each hazard level was assigned a score, with a total multi-hazard score then summed for each stadium. The grounds were then ranked based on their total multi-hazard score, representing their exposure to all hazards combined.

Stadiums that had a tied multi-hazard score (e.g. Grimsby Town and Lincoln City, both 2750) were further sorted by the flood hazard exposure in the first instance and, if this was equal, by their precipitation hazard exposure.

This represents Zurich Resilience Solutions’ methodology for ranking the relative exposure of stadiums to climate hazards. Other ranking methodologies may result in a different ranking.

Throughout the analysis, only the hazard exposure is used to determine the hazard risk levels. No analysis of local vulnerabilities or criticalities has been carried out. Nor does the analysis factor in any resilience measures that clubs already have in place to reduce their risk exposure to climate hazards