Poorest communities will bear the brunt of climate-fuelled flash flooding, new study shows

20 April 2023

  • More than 380,000 households in England at heightened risk of flash floods are living in severe deprivation – 75,000 more than in the least deprived areas
  • Findings from the Flash Flood Resilience Index reveal the impact of extreme rainfall events on disadvantaged areas
  • Birmingham has the highest number of deprived households at risk of flash flooding, followed by Kingston upon Hull, Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds
  • Public sector insurer Zurich Municipal has called for a review of government flood investment to ensure it is fairly targeted at deprived communities

Flash floods fuelled by the climate crisis will hit England’s poorest communities the hardest, with a disproportionate number of deprived households at risk, a new analysis suggests.

More than 380,000 households in the country’s most deprived neighbourhoods are in danger of flooding from torrential rain – some 75,000 more than in the least deprived areas. (1)

The figures from the Flash Flood Resilience Index, developed by public sector insurer Zurich Municipal, highlight the impact more frequent and severe rainfall could have on vulnerable communities. It has sparked calls for an urgent review of government flood investment to ensure funding is fairly targeted at council areas with larger numbers of disadvantaged households.

The index combines data on social deprivation in England’s 317 local authorities with flood risk exposure to identify the towns and cities facing the greatest disadvantage from increasing climate-driven downpours.

The analysis suggests that nearly a million people in England at heightened risk of flash flooding are living in severe deprivation. (2)

Birmingham has the highest number of deprived households at flood risk, followed by Kingston upon Hull, Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds. The greatest proportion of disadvantaged, flood prone properties are found in Dover, with more than a quarter (28%) of all homes in the most deprived areas under threat.

Half (50%) of deprived households (190,137 properties) at heightened flood risk are concentrated in just 35 of the 317 local authority areas – underlining the severe impact more frequent flooding could have on some council areas.

Local authority Number of homes in 20% most deprived areas at medium to high risk of flash flooding Local authority Proportion of homes in 20% most deprived areas at medium to high risk of flash flooding
1. Birmingham 15,741 1. Dover 28.42%
2. Kingston upon Hull 15,015 2. Teignbridge 25.88%
3. Manchester 9,730 3. West Suffolk 25.86%
4. Liverpool 9,301 4. Gedling 23.99%
5. Leeds 8,563 5. Eastbourne 21.41%

While the government weights deprived areas more heavily in flood funding allocations, a 2021 report by the Public Accounts Committee found that the proportion of funding going to these areas has fallen since 2014.

Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, at the Climate Change Committee, said:

“A proactive approach to improving flood resilience is essential. Vulnerable individuals and groups often have less capacity to respond to hazards such as flooding, so the approach we take to investment must consider fairness.

“Valuing actions to ensure we are better prepared and more able to respond to flooding, now and as the climate changes in the future, will drive the effective investment decisions we need to see from both Government and the private sector. Flood risks are inherently place-based so prioritising and enabling local dialogue around the approach to adaptation is critical.”

Amy Brettell, Managing Director of Zurich Municipal, said:

“Flooding is disastrous for any community, but for the most deprived, with the least resources to respond and recover, the effects can be devastating.

“Much of the responsibility for managing flooding and its impact falls on councils, which are desperately under resourced to cope with the growing climate risks their communities face.

“In deprived areas, repeated episodes of flash flooding could compound existing disadvantages. This poses a stark threat to community wellbeing as well as the government’s levelling up agenda.

“There is a powerful case for the government to review its current spending on flood risk to ensure it is fairly targeted at the most at-risk families and local authorities.”

As well as reviewing the way flood investment is targeted, Zurich Municipal urged ministers to launch a new National Adaptation Fund for local government, which would remove the current need for councils to bid for funding.

It also called for the existing £5,000 flood resilience grants to be made up front to families, instead of after a flood event, and targeted at the most vulnerable.

To help councils prepare for and effectively respond to more extreme weather, Zurich Municipal has invested in a cutting-edge, flash flood forecasting system developed by Previsico.

The service, offered free to Zurich’s local authority customers, provides precise flash flood warnings to within 25 metres of an individual property, up to 48-hours in advance.

Following its launch last summer, 35 councils have already signed up to receive the early warning alerts, helping to protect over 50,000 community assets, from social housing to schools.

Brettell added:

“Councils need more support and investment to close the resilience gap and ready their communities for a changing climate. The costs of inaction are far greater, and will hit poorest neighbourhoods the hardest.”

The Z Zurich Foundation, a Swiss-based charitable foundation established by members of the Zurich Insurance Group, is further scaling up efforts to combat the negative impacts of climate change and announced in 2022 its latest initiative – the Urban Climate Resilience Program (UCRP) to support urban communities in various countries across the globe, including Greater Manchester.

The Urban Climate Resilience Program aims to help highly vulnerable communities in 10 countries around the world build greater resilience to more extreme weather. From around 75 communities in 2019, the Z Zurich Foundation, alongside the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance, has supported over 300 communities across more than 20 countries to become more resilient to flooding.

Notes to editors

The Flash Flood Resilience Index combines data from the English indices of multiple deprivation with flood data from Ambiental, a global specialist in flood and climate risk data and analytics. The index is based on pluvial flood data, which relates to surface water and flash flooding.

(1) 380,355 households in the top fifth (20%) most deprived neighbourhoods in England face a medium to high risk of flash flooding. This compares to 305,299 properties in the 20% least deprived areas of the country.

(2) The average household size in England and Wales in 2021 was 2.4 people per household. 2.4 x 380,355 = 912,852

Zurich’s flood policy recommendations

  • Review the current approach to flood investment. An immediate of review of the government’s approach to flood investment is needed to ensure it is appropriately aligned with local authorities that have a high number or proportion of deprived, flood prone households.
  • Launch a new National Adaptation Fund for local government. This would avoid the need for local authorities to bid for funding for adaptation to climate risks in their areas. Instead, funding would be automatically allocated to councils, allowing them plan for the long term, and providing the capital needed to take action on adaptation. Funding should be combined with a new statutory duty for local authorities to deliver climate resilience for their local community through funding adaptation projects.
  • Publish an annual analysis of flood spend. The government should publish an annual analysis of flood protection spending levels across all high-risk communities, together with their level of deprivation, to prevent any inequalities in funding. It should also adopt an indicator, similar to the Flash Flood Resilience Index, to identify areas most in need of funding.
  • Reform the flood resilience grant scheme. At a household level, Zurich Municipal urged ministers to proactively target existing flood resilience grants at flood prone households in deprived communities. Currently, the £5,000 grants for making homes more resilient to flooding are only available after a flood event. Guidance on the access and distribution of the grants is vague. A robust framework is needed to ensure the grants are accessible and delivered consistently.
  • Help for communities to understand their extreme weather risks. The government should improve the sharing of national and local risk assessments that would allow communities to better understand the risks that may affect them, improve their resilience and plan for emergencies.
  • Improve the take-up of contents insurance among tenants. The Independent Review of Flood Insurance highlighted that 45% of tenants did not have contents insurance. The impact of flooding on people already living in more precarious situations can be profound. Zurich supports the Review’s recommendation that local authorities should ensure that tenants in high flood risk areas are given guidance on i) the range of risks they face in the event of a flood and ii) ways in which they can protect themselves with adequate insurance cover.

How is Zurich supporting customers at flood risk?

  • Launched a free flash flood alert system for its local authority customers using a state-of-the-art early warning system.
  • Introduced a free counselling service for customers and their immediate family members impacted by flood events, together with financial guidance and legal support.
  • Implemented a flood resilience toolkit to help flood-hit home and business owners improve their property resilience to future flooding.
  • Partnered with Airbnb to ensure people are who are temporarily forced out of their homes by flooding have a greater choice in where they stay, so they can be nearer to schools, work or relatives.
  • Launched the Climate Change Resilience Services team to help commercial customers identify the risks which climate change and natural hazards pose to their business and provide innovative solutions to improve their resilience in order to reduce their risk.
Homes Normal (no flood risk) Marginally increased flood risk Medium flood risk High flood risk Total at medium and high risk Total at flood risk % at medium to high risk
Residences in 20% most deprived 5,837,627 5,044,799 412,493 198,311 182,024 380,355 792,828 6.52%
Residences in middle 60% 17,729, 899 15,303,776 1,219,820 611,908 594,395 1,206,303 2,426,123 6.80%
Residences in 20% least deprived 5,338,407 4,749,043 284,065 152,953 152,346 305,299 589,364 5.72%
Local authority Number of homes in 20% most deprived areas at medium to high risk of flooding Local authority Proportion of homes in 20% most deprived areas at medium to high risk of flooding
1. Birmingham 15,741 1. Dover 28.423%
2. Kingston upon Hull 15,015 2. Teignbridge 25.883%
3. Manchester 9,730 3. West Suffolk* 25.862%
4. Liverpool 9,301 4. Gedling 23.994%
5. Leeds 7,737 5. Eastbourne 21.414%
6. Nottingham 7,782 6. Camden 20.052%
7. Hackney 7,737 7. Colchester 18.925%
8. Leicester 6,394 8. Kingston upon Hull 18.002%
9. Sandwell 5,965 9. Brighton and Hove 17.291%
10. Brighton and Hove 5,311 10. North Devon 17.166%
11. Salford 5,116 11. Rushmoor 15.603%
12. Lambeth 4,959 12. Hastings 15.081%
13. Bristol 4,754 13. Canterbury 14.333%
14. Camden 4,748 14. Rochford* 14.068%
15. Derby 4,439 15. Medway 13.946%
16. Hastings 4,406 16. Lambeth 13.656%
17. Bradford 4,379 17. Southend-on-Sea 13.537%
18. Medway 4,265 18. Torbay 13.434%
19. Kirklees 4,214 19. Thanet 13.407%
20. Luton 4,165 20. Aylesbury Vale* 13.287%

*These local authorities have fewer than 1,000 households in deprived areas, as defined by this method

Methodology - Flash Flood Resilience Index

The Flash Flood Resilience Index is based on data from the 2019 Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and UK FloodScoreTM data provided by Ambiental Risk Analytics. The Pluvial FloodScore risk rating was used in the study, which relates to flash/surface water flooding. The data was combined using the Office for National Statistics Postcode Directory, which provides the Lower-Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) codes for every postcode. The data from Ambiental was combined with the ONS Postcode Directory to assign an LSOA code to every property. This data was grouped first to LSOA level, where risk was aggregated across various levels, and then up to Local Authority level, where the data was grouped in terms of the LSOA’s IMD ranking. The IMD is ranked at LSOA level.

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