Organisations need to prepare for more frequent flooding
Climate change will increase the number of flooding events in the UK. We are underprepared so organisations need to review their resilience.
Climate change will force organisations and communities to prepare for flood events
The UK is underprepared for the projected increased risk of flooding posed by climate change. That is the key finding from a National Trust sponsored report1. Too many organisations only act after a flood happens but the time to prepare is now.
The biggest threat to most homes and organisations is surface water flooding, followed by rivers and the sea, and groundwater. Organisations can also be affected by disruption to utilities and their supply chains. There may also be increased risks to people who respond to flood events, plus the potential for pollution clean-up to prolong the disruption.
The frequency and magnitude of flood events will increase
The UK Government assesses the potential impact of flood risks on people, the environment, infrastructure and the economy as ‘significant’2. This is the second highest impact rating possible for any risk.
The 2022 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment3 reported in a 2°C warming scenario annual damages from flooding for non-residential properties across the UK is expected to increase by 27% by 2050 and 40% by 2080. In a planet warmed by 4°C this increases to 44% and 75% respectively.
Given these projections and the relative unpreparedness of the UK, there is a responsibility on the whole of society to make changes to improve our resilience to flooding. This reinforces the Environment Agency call to “adapt or die” through organisations and society investing in adaptation and preparation, rather than living with the costs of clean-ups4.
Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather, leading to increased flooding.
- Winter rainfall is expected to increase by approximately 6% by the 2050s and by 8% by the 2080s, compared to a 1981-2000 baseline4
- Summer rainfall is expected to decrease by approximately 15% by the 2050s compared to a 1981-2000 baseline4
- Despite predicted overall summer drying trends, data suggests an increase in the intensity of heavy summer rainfall events5
- Hourly rainfall intensity is projected to increase5
- By 2070, precipitation ranges are likely to be -45% to +5% in summer, and -3% to +39% in winter5 (less rain in the summer and more in the winter)
- London’s sea level is expected to rise by between approximately 23cm by the 2050s and 45cm by the 2080s4
River flows will be more extreme. Peak flows are expected to be up to 27% higher in the 2050s, while in the summer months river flows could be 82% lower by as soon as 20504. This suggests we will have dryer summers with burst of intense rainfall, increasing the risk of surface water flooding, as seen in London during the summer of 2021.
In the winter there will be an overall increase in rainfall and intensity, increasing the risk of groundwater and surface water flooding. These variations in rainfall have a direct impact on rivers and in the winter months will increase the risk of fluvial flooding. The expected sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal flooding and exacerbate fluvial flood risk in costal locations. The risk of flooding from all sources is expected to increase.
Improving flood resilience starts with a risk assessment
To determine the flood risk of a location, a flood risk assessment can help to identify the risk of a location by assessing the following features:
- Hazard – The hazard the site is exposed to
- Exposure – The vulnerability of the site and features that increase risk
- Control Measures – The risk reduction measures that decrease the risk
The overall resilience to flood can be increased through bespoke management solutions based on the assessment. To reduce the risk effectively a combination of property specific mitigation and adaptation solutions are needed.
Typical solutions include flood defences, resilient and recoverable design, natural flood management, maintenance, training education and awareness, warning systems and flood response plans.
There is no one size fits all solution. A comprehensive approach to flood risk management requires preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery.
How can we help?
At Zurich Resilience Solutions (ZRS) we have a dedicated team of Climate Resilience experts who support organisations to tackle climate change risk and better understand how it might affect their operations, strategy, and financial position.
Our Climate Resilience team can help you identify your risk to flooding and provide recommendations to improve climate resilience and help reduce your risk. One of the solutions which we offer is the development of a flood response plan. This will improve your preparedness to flooding by establishing a response procedure which encapsulates, the hazard, site operations, early warning systems, mitigation, and recovery measures to proactively manage and reduce flood risk to a site.
Please contact us if you wish to find out more about our services or for more information about flood response plans.
